Table of Contents
Executive Summary
E.1 Introduction
E.2 Summary of Eight-Year Forecasts: General/Architectural Illumination Dominates
E.2.1 Still No Moderately Priced OLED Lighting Panels: A Change from Our 2010 Forecast
E.2.2 Other Markets for OLED Lighting: Future Opportunities?
E.2.3 Ongoing Challenges for OLED Lighting
E.3 Announced Timetables and Roadmaps of Major OLED Lighting Manufacturers
Chapter One: Introduction: Assumptions, Drivers and Challenges
1.1Background and Objectives of this Report
1.1.1 Scope of Forecast
1.1.2 Sources of Information
1.2 OLED Lighting: Reasons to Believe
1.3 Ongoing Challenges
1.3.1 Continuing Impact of the Recession
1.4 Announced Timetables and Roadmaps of Major OLED Lighting Manufacturers
1.4.1 AUO (Taiwan)
1.4.2 Fraunhofer IPMS
1.4.3 Fujitec (Japan)
1.4.4 General Electric (U.S.)
1.4.5 Jusung Engineering (Korea)
1.4.6 Kaneka (Japan)
1.4.7 Konica Minolta (Japan)
1.4.8 Ledon (Germany)
1.4.9 LG (South Korea)
1.4.10 Lomox (U.K.)
1.4.11 Lumiotec (Japan)
1.4.12 Modistech (Korea)
1.4.13 OLED100.eu Project
1.4.14 Organic Lighting (Japan)
1.4.15 Osram (Germany)
1.4.16 Panasonic (Japan)
1.4.17 Philips (Netherlands)
1.4.18 Pioneer/Mitsubishi (Japan)
1.4.19 PolyPhotonix (U.K.)
1.4.20 Rohm (Japan)
1.4.21 Showa Denko (Japan)
1.4.22 Universal Display (U.S.A.)
1.5 Impact of First OLED Lighting Products on our Forecasts
1.5.1 Revenue Sources in 2011: Differences from 2010
1.5.2 Revenue Impact of First OLED Products Produced in Volume
1.5.3 OLED Lights as a General Lighting Substitute
1.5.4 OLED Makers' Revenue Expectations
1.6 Manufacturing Assumptions
1.6.1 The Role of Roll-to-Roll
1.7 Current and Future Pricing of OLED Lighting
1.8 Consumer Acceptance Assumptions and Alternative Scenarios
1.8.1 How Much Confidence Should You Have in these Forecasts?
Chapter Two: OLED General Illumination and Architectural Lighting Forecasts
2.1 Introduction
2.2 Impact of Technical Achievements
2.2.1 Panel Size: Getting Bigger Faster
2.2.2 Efficiency: Progress in the Past Year
2.2.3 Luminance: Progress in the Past Year
2.2.4 Lifetimes and their Implications for Addressable Markets
2.3 Eight-Year Forecast of Worldwide OLED-Based General Illumination Markets
2.3.1 The General Illumination Market as an Addressable Market for OLEDs
2.3.2 Penetration Patterns for OLED-Based General Illumination
2.3.3 Design Issues: OLED Lighting as an Alternative to Light Bulbs and Tubes
2.3.4 Prices and the Impact of OLED Lifetimes on Consumer Behavior and Financial Discount Rates
2.3.5 OLED Panel Costs and Pricing Assumptions for General Illumination
2.3.6 OLED Fixture/Luminaire Costs and Pricing Assumptions for General Illumination
2.4 Eight-Year Forecast of Worldwide OLED-Based Architectural Lighting Markets
2.4.1 Forecasting Assumptions for Architectural Lighting
Chapter Three: Other Potential OLED Lighting Markets
3.1 OLED Personal Illumination Devices and Other Solar-Powered OLEDs
3.1.1 Eight-Year Forecast of OLED Personal Illumination Devices
3.2 Vehicular Lighting: Trains and Planes and Cars
3.2.1 Eight-Year Forecasts of Vehicular Backlighting
3.3 Backlighting: Will OLEDs Ever Be Good Enough?
3.3.1 Three Addressable Markets for OLED Backlighting
3.3.2 Speculations on the Market Size for OLED Backlights
3.4 OLED Lighting in Signage
3.5 Other Applications for OLED Lighting
3.5.1 Healthcare Lighting
3.5.2 Specialized Industrial Lighting
3.5.3 Novelty Applications
Chapter Four: A Summing Up
4.1 Summary of Market Forecasts and Differences from our August 2010 Forecasts
4.2 Speculations on the Size of Regional Markets: Europe, North America and Asia
Acronyms and Abbreviations Used In this Report
About the Author
List of Exhibits
Exhibit E-1: Summary of OLED Lighting Markets ($ Millions)
Exhibit 1-1: Philips' OLED Lighting Product Evolution Scenario
Exhibit 1-2: Early OLED Lighting Products: The Pricing Story So Far
Exhibit 2-1: Eight-Year Forecasts of OLED Lighting for General Illumination
Exhibit 2-2: Eight-Year Forecasts of OLED Architectural Lighting
Exhibit 3-1: Personal Illumination Devices ($ Millions)
Exhibit 3-2: Eight-Year Forecasts of OLEDs for Vehicular Lighting
Exhibit 3-3: Eight-Year Forecasts of OLED Lighting In Signage
Exhibit 4-1: Summary of OLED Lighting Markets by Application ($ Millions)
FollowNanomarkets on Twitter
JoinNanomarkets on Facebook
FollowNanomarkets on LinkedIN
Subscribeto the Reports Feed
